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HOW TO STRIKE 4D?

What do you dream of when you sleep at night? For many Singaporeans, it’s striking 4D. While some might call it superstition, inspiration can come from anywhere, be it a car accident or getting hit by bird poop.

But do you know your ACTUAL chances of striking 4D? Let’s find out by calculating the probability that the number that you bought will win a prize in a 4D draw!

Solution

In 4D, the numbers that can come out range from:
0000, 0001, 0002, and so on, to 9999.

Because we must include the number “0000”, the total number of combinations is
9,999 + 1 = 10,000

Since in 4D there are 10 starter numbers, 10 consolation numbers and the top 3 prizes, we have 10 + 10 + 3 = 23 chances to hit the right numbers.

So the probability that your number will not win the first prize is
9,99910,000

The probability that your number will not win any of the first two prizes is
(9,99910,000)2

Therefore the probability that your number will NOT win any of the 23 prizes would be
(9,99910,000)23

Thus, the probability that your number will WIN a prize in a 4D draw would be
1 - (9,99910,000)23 ≈ 0.0023

So, we can conclude that the chances of winning any prize in 4D is extremely low, at just 0.23%! So it would be wise to not spend too much on it, and keep it as a fun thing to do once in a while!

Do you know?

Many Singaporeans like to “study” past winning numbers to see which are more likely to come up in the next lottery draw. But the truth is that every draw is independent of one another, and all numbers have an equal chance of being drawn!

That means that if “2222” is drawn this week, it doesn’t mean that “2222” is more, or less, likely to be drawn again next week. So don’t get too hung up over which numbers to buy, because if there’s one thing math tells us, it’s that all numbers are equal!